Duke Updates Integrated Resource Plan
Duke Energy has filed its 2025 Carolinas Resource Plan with the North Carolina Utilities Commission, outlining how it will meet rapid growth in electricity demand across North Carolina and South Carolina while keeping customer costs low and maintaining reliability. The plan projects average bill increases of 2.1% per year over the next decade, below inflation and lower than the 2023 plan’s forecast.
The 2.1% annual increase is about half the annual increase Duke projected in its 2023 forecast, due, at least in part, to the flexibility provided by Senate Bill 266. ElectriCities strongly advocated for SB 266 to provide much needed flexibility in pursuing a cost-effective and reliable path to decarbonization.
Electricity demand in the Carolinas is growing eight times faster than in the past 15 years. This growth is driven largely by new manufacturing and business investments that have brought over 25,000 jobs and $19 billion in announced projects so far in 2025.
Duke’s updated plan reflects new state and federal energy policies emphasizing reliability, affordability, and cleaner generation, with significant updates to Duke Energy’s long-term generation mix. Here are the main updates according to Duke:
Nuclear: Adds evaluation of large light-water reactor (LLWR) technology alongside small modular reactors (SMRs), targeting new nuclear capacity around 2037 at either Belews Creek, North Carolina (SMR), or W.S. Lee, South Carolina (LLWR).
Natural Gas: Keeps five combined-cycle units from the prior plan and adds two new combustion turbines, for a total of seven. Also adds liquefied natural gas storage to improve fuel reliability and cost stability.
Battery Storage: Expands planned capacity to 5,600 MW by 2034, nearly doubling the 2023 target, supported by federal tax credits.
Solar: Maintains the goal of 4,000 MW by 2034, continuing to leverage federal incentives.
Pumped Storage Hydro: Defers expansion of the Bad Creek facility from 2034 to 2040, prioritizing near-term solar, natural gas, and battery projects.
Coal: Extends the operation of certain dual-fuel coal units (Belews Creek, Cliffside, Marshall) by 2 to 4 years due to eased federal restrictions, while maintaining an orderly transition away from coal.
Wind: Remains uneconomical through 2040 but will be revisited in future planning cycles.
The plan also includes efficiency upgrades that add about 300 MW of clean capacity through nuclear uprates, 280 MW of additional pumped storage, and improvements to the natural gas fleet to lower emissions and costs.